Recently, tensions between the US and Iran have started to look like a TV series. One day there is an attack, the next day there are talks, and then new threats appear. In this week’s new episode, statements suggesting that negotiations between the US and Iran may restart and that the two sides are getting closer to an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz came into focus. This news flow gave markets some breathing room on the first trading day of the week. However, there is still no lasting peace. Markets are not pricing in the end of the conflict. They are pricing in the possibility that tensions may be delayed for a while.

This difference is especially important for oil and precious metals. The sharp fall in oil prices has slightly eased concerns about energy-driven inflation. The idea that the Fed may need to keep monetary policy tight for longer, which had gained strength due to higher oil prices in recent weeks, has now moved into the background.

Gold is trading at $4,059, up 0.45%.However, gold’s movement cannot be explained only by geopolitical developments. The main question is how much lower oil prices will calm inflation expectations and how this may affect the Fed’s interest rate path.For gold, the $4,000 level has become an important threshold. It shows how much the market has already priced in expectations of tight monetary policy. Holding above this level suggests that investors have not completely given up on gold’s long-term story.

Silver is trading at $58.04, up 0.80%. The 0.36% decline in the gold-to-silver ratio shows that silver is performing better than gold during the day. However, the main question for silver remains the same: Can it break above the $60 level? Developments aimed at reducing the use of silver in the solar energy sector are also being closely watched, as they may affect future demand forecasts.

Platinum is trading at $1,654, up 0.85%, making it the strongest-performing precious metal of the day. The concentration of platinum production in a limited number of countries makes the metal more sensitive to geopolitical and operational risks. Palladium is trading at $1,286, up 0.48%.

For now, markets are not pricing in peace. They are pricing in the possibility of peace. And sometimes, in financial markets, possibility can be more powerful than reality itself.