In global markets, the main theme of the week is again shaped around geopolitical risk, oil, inflation, and Fed expectations. The market continues to read the war and regional tension not directly through gold demand, but through oil prices, energy costs, inflation, and the possibility of tighter monetary policy. For this reason, the impact of geopolitical risk on metals is divided into two sides. On one side, rising uncertainty can theoretically create demand for assets such as gold and silver. On the other side, rising oil prices strengthen expectations that the Fed may stay hawkish for longer, putting pressure on non-yielding metals. At the moment, the second effect is stronger in the market. Strong employment data from the US increased this pressure further. As of this morning, gold is trading at $4,319, down 0.21%. Silver is down 0.10% at $67.74, while palladium is up 0.27% at $1,229. Platinum is trading at $1,778, up 0.14%. This picture shows that pressure continues on gold and silver, while platinum and palladium show limited resistance due to supply-demand dynamics.

As conflicts in the Middle East push oil prices higher, inflation concerns become stronger. The deterioration in inflation expectations weakens the possibility of Fed rate cuts, and even brings the possibility of another rate hike this year back into discussion. Under this equation, gold is struggling to gain lasting upward momentum despite war risk. The important point in gold’s decline is not only the increase in selling, but also the weakening of buyer appetite.

Pressure is more visible on the silver side. Concerns about global growth are also weakening expectations for industrial demand. Despite this, physical tightness in silver continues. On COMEX, the fact that open interest remains high compared to registered stocks increases sensitivity during delivery periods. In other words, although prices may decline in the short term due to interest rate and dollar pressure, limited stocks, supply deficit, industrial use, and especially solar panel demand continue to support silver’s medium-term potential.

There is also a noteworthy area opening on the jewellery side for platinum. It is directing consumers toward more affordable white metal alternatives. Stronger platinum jewellery demand in markets such as China, India, Japan, and the US shows that the metal may receive support not only from the industrial side, but also from the consumer side. Recovery remains limited on the palladium side. This is because the metal is still largely dependent on the automotive sector. Concerns about the transition to electric vehicles are weakening demand. For this reason, a stronger rise in palladium requires a clear recovery in automotive demand or a new tightening signal on the supply side.

As geopolitical risks increase, markets are pricing not only the possibility of war, but also its impact on energy and transportation costs. Risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases concerns about oil demand, while tension in the Red Sea may push sea transportation costs higher. Higher oil and logistics costs increase inflation pressure. This strengthens expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates high for longer, creating pressure on precious metals. So, risk is rising, but this time it is limiting the rise in metals through interest rate concerns rather than supporting gold.