Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, while the United States says the waterway remains open, has increased uncertainty in the region and caused negative market pricing. New US attacks on Iran and growing risks for commercial vessels have brought concerns about global energy supply back into focus. The rise in oil prices is creating a two-sided effect on precious metals. Under normal conditions, geopolitical tension supports safe-haven demand for gold and silver. However, higher energy prices also increase inflation expectations. This strengthens the view that central banks may keep interest rates high for longer or even consider further rate hikes.

US inflation data to be released this week will be important for the direction of the dollar and precious metals. Gold has lost more than 20% since the start of the Iran war and continues to trade around the $4,000 level. Silver remains the weakest performer among precious metals. It is trading around $58, down 2.75%. At the same time, China’s higher silver imports, reports of tighter export controls, and policies aimed at keeping strategic metals inside the country continue to raise questions about the future of the physical market.  This approach may be driven not only by industrial demand, but also by long-term resource security and the search for alternative financial infrastructure.

Platinum and palladium are showing smaller losses than gold and silver, but they are also affected by a strong dollar and the general risk-off mood. Platinum is trading at $1,618, down 0.75%, while palladium is at $1,257, down 1.26%. The direction of the market this week will be shaped by US inflation data, oil prices, and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain limited in the coming days, pressure from interest rates and the strong dollar is likely to continue on precious metals. However, if energy prices remain high and the conflict spreads to a wider area, investors may return to safe-haven assets. For this reason, the current decline may not be a clear change in direction. It may instead be a transition period in which the market is still deciding which risk matters more.

Can we say that the film is starting again?