The rise in precious metals at the start of the week may be seen as a short-term recovery after the recent sharp sell-off. However, it is still not clear whether this move can turn into a lasting upward trend. The war is continuing, and no one knows what kind of news flow the new day will bring. This keeps the market fragile. Gold is trading at $4,534, up 0.91%, while silver is at $70.92, gaining 1.69%. The stronger recovery is seen in platinum and palladium. Platinum is at $1,932, up 3.95%, and palladium is at $1,429, up 3.63%. Even so, the bigger picture has not changed. Markets are still pricing not the geopolitical risk itself, but the pressure this risk may create on energy prices, inflation, and interest rates.

As the war in the Middle East enters its fifth week, the direct involvement of the Iran-backed Houthis over the weekend created a new break point for markets. This means the conflict may no longer stay limited to the Iran-Israel line and could spread further across the region. Trump’s harsh statements about Iranian oil also pushed tensions higher instead of calming them. The main question for markets is no longer how big the war may become, but how long it may keep energy prices high. In recent days, oil has been the main story in pricing. Before the war, the market was expecting two rate cuts. Now, most of that expectation has disappeared. Instead, markets are talking about higher rates for longer, and even the small chance of another rate hike. The recent sharp fall in gold shows that investors do not always see gold as a safe haven under all conditions. After the strong rally of the last two years, more short-term and risky positions built up in the market. Because of this, in times of stress, gold can sometimes become an asset that investors sell to raise cash, instead of buy for protection.

In silver, geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand are supportive. But at the same time, the strong dollar continues to put pressure on prices. Platinum and palladium, on the other hand, are showing a stronger rebound than the other metals during the day. This suggests that investor interest is not only in gold, but also in other precious metals. For gold, themes such as reserve diversification and de-dollarization are still important. Also, Singapore and Hong Kong are accelerating their competition to become major gold trading hubs. This shows that interest in physical gold and institutional infrastructure in Asia is still strong.

In other words, even if prices are seeing a sharp correction on screen, the broader growth story behind the metal market has not completely disappeared.